I've read a lot lately about why it's likely that the Ubuntu Edge campaign will fail. While I'm a born pessimist, I don't agree that the failure of the campaign is a foregone conclusion, or even likely.
In fact, while I agree that the goal hitting $32,000,000 within a month sounds a little insane, the hardcore crowd that this device is aimed at have proven in the past to be a greater force than pundits acknowledge. And they're not a financially strapped set of fellows, either.
This BoingBoing write-up details a Humble Indie Bundle campaign in which Linux gamers, for example, were twice as generous as Windows gamers, and 40% more generous than Mac users -- the stereotypically "rich" set. In other words, those Linux users are not using Linux because it's cheap. I believe they're using it because they are fans of bleeding-edge technology, and they want to be involved in the creation of that technology.
That is exactly the demographic that will support the Ubuntu Edge Superphone.
Here are some other reasons I think the Ubuntu Edge can succeed, both short-term in the campaign phase, and long-term as a true superphone showpiece:
- Linux users care about supporting and being a part of new tech.
- Linux users don't care as much about jumping into a vast and established app ecosystem; they are just as likely to want to be a part of the creation of that ecosystem as they are likely to want to avail themselves of it. (For example, for a standard user, a smartphone without Instagram is a major bummer. A Linux user does not need or want Instagram as much as they want to help code the eventual replacement.)
- A lot of unforeseen things could happen to support the campaign. New price points added; new perks added; numerous management and promotional decisions will shape the remaining days of the campaign in ways that disrupt current predictions.
- The campaign has currently been savvy enough to remain on schedule, against odds.
- As the dollar amount inches closer to the final target, optimism will overtake doubt and it will be possible that a burst of funding will result from a final push. The press loves an impossible last-minute victory, and will give the campaign nonstop attention if it's anywhere near the goal in the final week.
- High-paid Linux professionals want this to succeed. They want the exclusive phone. One or several of them may be willing to make an insane contribution in the final days of the campaign, if less well-funded users don't step up.
So if you're on the fence about supporting the Ubuntu Edge, because someone has told you it's not likely to happen, I encourage you to go ahead and sign up for your new phone. Remember, there's no "wait and see" in this case. The phone either gets funded, or it doesn't, and those not involved in the campaign will never be able to buy it at retail.
